WTIO21 PGTW 200200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 62.1E TO 11.9N 57.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 102000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 61.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.1N 61.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 61.8E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 192155Z 
NOAA20 183GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION CENTERED OVER A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH ELONGATED 
CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 91A IS IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO 
WARM (30-31C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 91A WILL CONTINUE 
ALONG A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
210200Z.
//
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