WTIO21 PGTW 040930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.2N 83.2E TO 10.0N 81.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 83.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.8N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 83.1E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040051Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). THERE ARE DEEP POCKETS OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY TO THE 
IMMEDIATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC.   
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVLEOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY 
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
050930Z.
//
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