WTIO31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 64.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 64.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 13.6N 63.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 13.9N 61.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 64.1E.
16DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523
NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), 
WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 80NM TO THE EAST 
DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), CURRENTLY 
ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, 
CONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 
KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE PERSISTENT AND INCREASING 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENCROACHMENT HAVE 
TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON TC 07A, AND HAVE LED TO A COMPLETE DECOUPLING OF 
THE LOWER AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX. WITHOUT A STACKED VORTEX, THE SYSTEM 
IS NOT LONG FOR THIS WORLD. WHILE THE INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED 
AT 35 KNOTS, THIS IS LIKELY A BIT GENEROUS, AND IN ANY CASE THE 
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING FORWARD MEAN THAT IT WILL SLOWLY 
SPIN DOWN BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 
HOURS. WHILE ANTICIPATED TO BE A 30 KNOT SYSTEM BY TAU 12, IT IS 
LIKELY THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LINGER FOR SOME TIME, AND 
HENCE THE FINAL WARNING INCLUDES A TAU 24 POSITION, WHERE IT IS 
ANTICIPATED THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE A 30 KNOT CIRCULATION. THEREAFTER 
THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE SLOWLY AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY WESTWARD. THIS 
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL 
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF 
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET.//
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