WTIO31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 84.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 84.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 17.2N 85.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 18.2N 85.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 20.3N 86.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 84.9E.
04DEC21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK, PARTIALLY EXPOSED SYSTEM WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH. MSI ALSO DEPICTS ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION ABOUT 250+ NM TO THE NORTHEAST THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS ARE
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND
POSITION FIX, A 040330z ASCAT-B IMAGE, AND A 040418Z ASCAT-C IMAGE.
BOTH ASCAT IMAGES DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY 20-25
KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED 30 KT WINDS. TC 05B IS
CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (>25 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PUSHING THE CONVECTION NORTHWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 12 AND WILL CONTINUE THIS DIRECTION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO
THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK FORECAST WITH ONLY A 60 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
AT TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z
IS 10 FEET.//
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