WTIO32 PGTW 260300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 79.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 79.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 13.0N 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 13.6N 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 79.3E. 26NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 804 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER LAND AND REMAINS OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIMELY 252335Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS BASED ON AN UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A WEAKENING TREND FROM A 252049Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KTS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC NIVAR IS TRACKING OVER LAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, STEADILY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 24. THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM REGENERATING OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// NNNN