WTIO31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (SHAHEEN-GULAB) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (SHAHEEN-GULAB) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 23.8N 57.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 57.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.0N 56.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 22.0N 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 57.1E. 03OCT21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (SHAHEEN-GULAB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS TC 03B MOVES OVER LAND INTO OMAN. A 031652Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS 40-45 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SYSTEM CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CENTER IS NOT DEPICTED IN THE ASCAT IMAGE DUE TO ITS COASTAL PROXIMITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS OVER LAND AND IS BASED ON THE 031730Z PGTW POSITION FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE WINDFIELD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH INFERS THAT THE MAX WINDS AT THE SYSTEM CENTER WOULD NOT EXCEED 55 KTS. TC 03B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN TO 25 KNOTS BY TAU 25. NUMERICAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER LAND UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// NNNN