WTIO31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (BIPARJOY) WARNING NR 039// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (BIPARJOY) WARNING NR 039 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 23.4N 68.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 68.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 24.2N 69.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 24.8N 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 25.3N 72.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 69.0E. 15JUN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (BIPARJOY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM INDIA AND PAKISTAN, THE BROAD AND RAGGED RADAR EYE OF TC 02A HAS CROSSED THE COAST NEAR THE TOWN OF NALIYA, INDIA BY THE 1800Z HOUR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS SET AT 55 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NUMBER OF FACTORS INCLUDING A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5, A DMINT ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS, DPRINT ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE THE 3- HOURLY REPORTED SURFACE WINDS AT NALIYA HAVE REMAINED LIGHT, THE MOST RECENT 18Z OBSERVATION WAS FROM WITHIN THE EYEWALL AND THE STATION LIKELY EXPERIENCED HIGHER WINDS IN THE INTERVAL BETWEEN OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, THE MSLP WITHIN THE RADAR EYE AT 1800Z WAS 980MB, SUPPORTING 55 KNOT INTENSITY. THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST SECTORS, IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS OFFSHORE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RATHER SLOWLY INLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTENSITY IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS WILL DROP OFF ONLY VERY SLOWLY, OR COULD EVEN REMAIN STEADY, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE RANN OF KUTCH AND BROWN-WATER EFFECTS INFLUENCE THE INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER MORE RUGGED AND DRY TERRAIN. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 24 FEET. // NNNN