WTIO31 PGTW 260900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 21.6N 87.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 87.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.5N 86.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.6N 85.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 86.8E. 26MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOW MOVING OVER LAND AND BEGINNING THE DECAYING PROCESS AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR FROM PARADIP, INDIA, AND ANALYSIS OF LOCAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES BEFORE LANDFALL WITH T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW, 4.0/65KTS FROM DEMS, T3.8/61KTS BY THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT), ALONG WITH AN OBSERVATION FROM BALASORE, INDIA OF 45KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02B RESIDES UNDER WEAKER POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-35KTS), CONTRIBUTING TO THE RAPID DECAY AS THE STORM DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 29NM AT TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAR SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER OF AFUM. THE MODEL SPREAD WIDENS TO 66NM WITH AFUM BY TAU 24 OR 29NM WITHOUT, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOONWRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// NNNN