WTPN22 PHNC 301930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291921ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 111.1W TO 15.8N 121.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 111.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 103.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 111.9W, APPROXIMATELY
424NM SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED, CONSOLIDATING BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 
PARTIAL 301102Z SSMIS F18 91H MICROWAVE PASS HAD DEPICTED DEEP CURVED, 
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SEMI-CIRCLE. A 
RECENT 301611Z ASCAT METOP-B 50KM BULLSEYE INDICATES AN ELONGATED LLCC 
WITH 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES OF 
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-15 KNOTS, GOOD 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) 
OF 28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPMENT IN THE 
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 
291930).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
311930Z.//
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