WTPN21 PHNC 072000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 99.2W TO 16.6N 101.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 99.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.0N 96.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 99.3W, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE 
CENTER TUCKED BENEATH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS 99E IS WITHIN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW (5-10 
KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30 C) SST, AND ROBUST DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS A RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON 99E HAVING A CONSISTENT 
DEVELOPMENT CYCLE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHILE REMAINING 
QUASISTATIONARY BEFORE MAKING A NORTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARDS MEXICO. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 062000).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
082000Z.//
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