WTPN21 PHNC 052030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042021Z AUG 22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 042030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 102.1W TO 14.5N 107.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 102.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 10.5N 95.0W, IS 
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 102.6W, APPROXIMATELY 314 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 
OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
051336Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT FRAGMENTED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN 
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE (20-30KT) 
VWS, WITH DECENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE (26-27C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW THAT INVEST 99E 
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
062030Z.
//
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