WTPN21 PHNC 301200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291200ZJUL2025//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291921ZJUL2025//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PHNC 291930)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS:THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 291200). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 138.6W, IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 140.0W APPROXIMATELY 1019 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
HILO.ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 300316Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION 
WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES 27-28C, DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE THAT 98E WILL CONTINUE 
AS A TROPICAL WAVE. WITH REGARD TO THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, FEW ECENS 
SOLUTIONS INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEVELOPMENT THAN GEFS, HOWEVER, THE 
BULK OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DO NOT INDICATE DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.THIS SYSTEM 
IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 103.7W.//
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