WTPN21 PHNC 181300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171300Z JUL 26//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 105.4W TO 11.9N 110.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.3N 105.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 
105.6W, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SW OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONSOLIDATING 
CYCLONIC ROTATION CONCEALED BY DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION AS WELL AS DEEP 
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT, DEFINED BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (29-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED DUE TO 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS HOWEVER THE CIRCULATION IS ANTICIPATED TO 
MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A  (WTPN21 PHNC 171300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
191300Z.
//
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