WTPN21 PHNC 230100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 113.7W TO 12.8N 119.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 114.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: 
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 114.0W, 
APPROXIMATELY 1220 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD MID LEVEL TURNING WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING 
INTO A WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE INVEST IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-
10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97E WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY 
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
240100Z.
//
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