WTPN21 PHNC 280630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 98.9W TO 15.6N 105.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 99.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N
99.2W, APPROXIMATELY 1541 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC) TUCKED BENEATH. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 97E 
WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-
48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
290630Z.//
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