WTPN21 PHNC 060130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (IMVEST 96E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050130Z JUL 25//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 050130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2N 107.2W TO 15.9N 110.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3N 107.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) IS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
107.4W, APPROXIMATELY 275NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 052037Z 89GHZ AMSR2
IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SPARSE 
POCKETS OF CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, 
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29- 30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
96E WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.(WTPN21 PHNC 050130)
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
070130Z.
//
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