WTPN21 PHNC 311300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E) REISSUED //
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301251Z JUL 23//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0N 102.3W TO 16.4N 111.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 102.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5N 96.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.6W, APPROXIMATELY 1370 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH BROAD DISORGANIZED CONVECTION JUST 
TO THE WEST AND WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 
96E REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96E WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT DIFFER IN 
INTENSIFICATION WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 301300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
011300Z.//
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