WTPN21 PHNC 181430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 113.3W TO 14.7N 121.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091812Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 113.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 133.9W, 
APPROXIMATELY 209NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 181213Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS 
DEPICT ELONGATED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES 
OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BENEATH AN 
AREA OF DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 
95E IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (31 C) SSTS AND 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 95E 
WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY WHILE CONTINUING ALONG A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
191430Z.
//
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