WTPN21 PHNC 160200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 88.6W TO 12.9N 94.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 88.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N 
88.9W, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHAMPERICO, GUATEMALA. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE 
LLCC. A PARTIAL 151548Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, 
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CIRCULATION, AND 
20-25 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE ROTATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATE TO FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, 
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD WHILE STEADILY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
170200Z.//
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