WTPN21 PHNC 221930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 98.7W TO 14.9N 95.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 98.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.N 
98.7W, APPROXIMATELY 246NM SOUTHWEST OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A ASCAT METOP-B 25KM 
SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS STRONG (20-25KT) WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
QUADRANT THAT ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS PRESENTING A MORE DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH 
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY.  ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES 94E IS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW (LESS THAN 15KTS) VWS, WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD-EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
231930Z.//
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