WTPN21 PHNC 231330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 120.6W TO 13.9N 122.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 120.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOT.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 
120.9W, APPROXIMATELY 1272 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230935Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A COMPACT AREA OF 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 94E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS 
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
241330Z.
//
NNNN