WTPN21 PHNC 071430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061421Z NOV 21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 112.8W TO 15.5N 117.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 113.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.3N 110.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 113.0W, APPROXIMATELY 
578NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OBSCURING A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C), AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
THAT 94E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
081430Z.
//
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