WTPN21 PHNC 111930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0N 106.4W TO 21.2N 110.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 106.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 
106.4W, APPROXIMATELY 169NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO VALLARTA, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION 
IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LCCC AND A 111708Z METOP-B 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS MODERATE (25-30 KNOTS) WINDS TO THE 
WEST, WITH STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 93E IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, DESPITE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 
BEING WEAK AND UNFAVORABLE. MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED 
DEVELOPMENT FOR 93E OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IN CONTINUES ITS TRACK 
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 
TO 33 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
121930Z.//
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