WTPN22 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062151Z JUN 26//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 085 NM RADIUS OF 10.9N 88.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 88.3W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR  
9.6N 88.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEEAR 10.5N 88.3W, APPROXIMATELY 128NM 
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO MASACHAPA, NICARAGUA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 
C), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR OF 5-10KTS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON 
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 062200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
082200Z.//
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