WTPN21 PHNC 220130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 98.0W TO 16.2N 102.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 102200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 98.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
12.7N 98.3W, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1940Z ATMS 88GHZ 
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT CONSOLIDATING, STRONG AND PERSISTENT CENTRAL 
CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH BURGEONING POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
230130Z.
//
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