WTPN21 PHNC 070230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060221Z JUN 26//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062151Z JUN 26//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4N 101.5W TO 17.0N 99.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN 
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060700Z 
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.4W. THE 
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.0N 104.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.4W, APPROXIMATELY 165NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-
15KTS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN PHNC 060230).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
080230Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 88.9W (WTPN22 PHNC 062200).//
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