WTPN21 PHNC 211930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201921ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 125 NM RADIUS OF 9.5N 97.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 97.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.0N 95.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 97.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1778 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 211308Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE 
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 91E IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29 C) SST OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT 
DUE PRIMARILY TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE 
THAT 91E WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 
PHNC 201930).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
221930Z.
//
NNNN