WTPN21 PHNC 092300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082251Z OCT 21// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 082300)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 97.1W TO 14.5N 104.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 091800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 97.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 92.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 97.5W, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 092017Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS MINOR WRAPPING IN THE CONVECTION. ANALYSES INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (<15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91E WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 102300Z. // NNNN