WTPN21 PHNC 170330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160321ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 103.4W TO 14.8N 109.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 103.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.0N 99.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 103.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1460 
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 170125Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN OBSCURED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 
OVER THE CENTER AND CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 90E IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE 
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90E WILL TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 
PHNC 160330).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
180330Z.
//
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