WTPN21 PHNC 191830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181751OCT2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7N 98.1W TO 15.4N 100.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 100.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUS LOCATED NEAR 
13.1N 98.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 100.3W, 
APPROXIMATELY 106 NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WITH SHALLOW RAIN BANDS WRAPPING 
INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN 191714Z ASCAT METOP-B 
PASS REVEALS A SMALL PATCH OF 20-35 KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF 
THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEMONSTRATES THAT THE INVEST IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 90E WILL TRACK 
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN NORTH TOWARDS MEXICO. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 181830).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
201830Z.
//
NNNN