ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.5N 151.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 150.9E, APPROXIMATELY 67 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO FORMATIVE BANDS IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 032316Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A WEAK, 
CLOSED LLCC CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHUUK, WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK AND MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES TO THE NORTH. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IN 
CLOSE PROXIMITY, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (2930 C). BOTH GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT 93W TRACKING 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES. THE 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE LAGGING BEHIND, INDICATING A SLOWER PACE OF 
CONSOLIDATION AND PRIMARILY SUPPORTING A LATER WINDOW FOR 
INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE SOLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTING 93W 
REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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