ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZJUL2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130321ZJUL2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 09W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 33.4N 117.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY 133 
NM NORTHWEST OF SHANGHAI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS REMNANTS OF 09W AS A BROAD CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED 
DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY TRANSITING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER 
LAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 09W IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEA (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
UPPER-LEVEL JET TO THE NORTH, OFFSET BY BORDERLINE (24-25 DEGREES 
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED TRACK. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE LOW PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION AS THE 
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5N 145.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM 
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A MOSTLY OBSCURED, ELONGATED AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON 
THE WESTERN FLANK. A 130006Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER 
AND POCKETS OF 20KT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 97W TRACKING 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS BUT THE GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM QUICKLY 
DISSIPATING WITHIN 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM 
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD 
AFTER 48 HOURS WHILE QUICKLY WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 130330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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