ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21OCT25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 30W (FENGSHEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.4N 112.4E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.2N 124.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 123.4E, APPROXIMATELY 42 NM 
WEST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 10210042Z ASCAT REVEALS A WAVE LIKE 
FEATURE PASSING ISHIGAKIJIMA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS 
PASSING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN 
EDGE OF A STRONG COLD-SURGE EVENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (25-30 KTS), WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE WAVE FEATURE 
PUSHING WEST AND INTERACTING WITH THE COLD SURGE FLOW, PULLING GALE-
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF TAIWAN AND 
WRAPPING INTO THE CUSP, EVENTUALLY HELPING TO CLOSE IT OFF INTO A 
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS 
SYSTEM, TRACKING SOUTH-EAST OF TAIWAN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE 
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW THIS 
WAVE AND SUBSEQUENT INTERACTIONS WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE BUT ARE 
LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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