ABPW10 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 
REISSUED/231500Z-240600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751ZFEB2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231451ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATON ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23FEB25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED) WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 152.8E, 
APPROXIMATELY 427 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD 
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 231500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 23FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (RAE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 178.8W, 
APPROXIMATELY 474 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS32 PGTW 230900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 168.0E IS 
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 594 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 230923Z 89 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A MOSTLY OBSCURED LLCC. A 
231015Z PARTIAL ASCAT METOP – C PASS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS (25-30) BEGINNING TO WRAP 
INTO THE CENTER WITH SMALLER MESO-VORTICES ON THE SOUTH WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-29C), GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
CONFIDENT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 96P WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPS21 PGTW 231500) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.3S 166.6W IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 25.4S 166.3W, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE 
CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTI SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 230246Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF ROTATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH COOL (24-26C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE (20-25KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL ENTER IN AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND 
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30-40 KNOTS AND STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 92P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW.  JTWC WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY 
MONITOR INVEST 92P FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL TRANSITION. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED ARE IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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