WTPN21 PHNC 061900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061900Z OCT 26//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 061900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 98.5W TO 14.3N 102.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 98.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 
96.4W, APPROXIMATELY 337NM SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A STEADILY CONSOLIDATING 
AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE 
CENTER WITH HIGHER WINDS (20-25KTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92E IS IN OVERALL FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
(05-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92E WILL MOVE 
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 051900).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
071900Z.//
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