WTPN21 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 167.3E TO 12.1N 166.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 167.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.1N 167.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 167.1E, APPROXIMATELY 51 NM 
NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS 94W AS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER. A 030910Z 
ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A BAND OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE 
NORTHEN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND 
WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
050900Z.//
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