ABPW10 PGTW 291700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/291700Z-300600ZSEP2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291351ZSEP2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291651ZSEP2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 29SEP26 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 25W (SURIGAE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 29.2N 136.3E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 291500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W)PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.4N 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 152.8E, APPROXIMATELY 494 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP 
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS GENERALLY 
AGREE ON 93W CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. OUT OF THE 
ENSEMBLE MODELS, ECENS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE REGARDING NEAR-TERM 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 291700) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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