WTPN21 PHNC 290130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280121ZSEP2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 134.1W TO 15.2N 127.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 133.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPORADIC CONVECTION 
ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 91E BRIEFLY 
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD, BUT QUICKLY 
WEAKENS THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 
PGTW 280130).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
300130Z.//
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