WTPN21 PHNC 280130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 137.2W TO 16.5N 130.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 136.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
136.9W, APPROXIMATELY 1355NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING TO 
THE NORTHWEST. AN ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 20-25 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A DEFINED CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-
25KTS), GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND A NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
290130Z.//
NNNN