WTIO21 PGTW 271730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 98.1E TO 17.2N 96.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 98.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
98.0E, APPROXIMATELY 177NM SOUTHEAST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 
271429Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 30KT WINDS OFF 
THE COAST OF MYANMAR. A 271449Z GMI COLOR 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD 
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE A SHORT 24 HOUR WINDOW FOR 
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF 
MYANMAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
281730Z.//
NNNN