WTPN21 PHNC 270100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260051Z SEP 26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 99.0W TO 13.2N 98.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.6N 99.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N
99.0W, APPROXIMATELY 280NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA, MEXICO. 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)  AND FLARING CONVECTION TO THE 
NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C). 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT 
WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 260100).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
280100Z.//
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