WTPN21 PHNC 230030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 15E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220021ZSEP2026//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 150.1W TO 13.9N 154.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 150.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 15E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 149.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 150.4E, APPROXIMATELY
482NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE 
OBSERVED IN THE MSI, INDICATING THAT THE LLCC IS STILL RATHER 
DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (20 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND A WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE 
THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 220030).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
240030Z.//
NNNN