ABIO10 PGTW 221100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/221100Z-221800ZSEP2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221051ZSEP2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.9N 86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM EAST 
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), AND 
ROBUST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE AREA. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST OF EASTERN INDIA. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 221100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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