WTIO21 PGTW 221100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 95B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7N 86.4E TO 18.4N 84.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.7N 86.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.9N 86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM EAST 
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), AND 
ROBUST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE AREA. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST OF EASTERN INDIA. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
231100Z.//
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