WTPN21 PHNC 220030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 15E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 146.2W TO 13.5N 148.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 146.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 15E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 
146.5W, APPROXIMATELY 636NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND A WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
230030Z.//
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