WTPN21 PHNC 200730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200552Z SEP 26//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190721Z SEP 26//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS (WTPN22 PHNC 
200600) AND (WTPN21 PHNC 190730).//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 123.9W TO 15.0N 128.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 32 TO 38 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 124.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.1N 119.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 124.2W, APPROXIMATELY 
718NM SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEPICTING STEADY INTENSIFICATION WITH A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 32 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF B (WTPN21 PHNC 190730).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
210730Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 106.3W//
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