WTPN22 PHNC 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190552Z SEP 26//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190721Z SEP 26//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS (WTPN22 PHNC 
190600) AND (WTPN21 PHNC 190730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 14.5N 106.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 106.3W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.1N 119.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 106.3W, APPROXIMATELY 
438NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY 
DEPICTS 99E AS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) STARTING TO 
CONSOLIDATE AS OF RECENTLY, WITH LOW LEVEL TURNING PARTICULARLY 
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SECTION.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 
KNOTS OR LESS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION AND A NORTHEASTERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 
PHNC 190600). 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
210600Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 119.7W//
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