WTPN21 PHNC 190730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180721Z SEP 26//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190552Z SEP 26//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS (WTPN21 PHNC 
180730) AND (WTPN22 PHNC 190600).//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 119.2W TO 11.8N 124.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 119.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.2N 117.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 119.7W, APPROXIMATELY 
487NM SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, HOWEVER IS OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-
25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT OF 
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 98E AND A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 
PHNC 180730).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
200730Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 105.7W.//
NNNN