WTPN21 PGTW 150130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 151.0E TO 22.1N 149.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 150.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 152.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 150.9E, APPROXIMATELY
374 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15KTS), DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 90W FURTHER CONSOLIDATING WITH 
A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160130Z.//
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