ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS 130600Z-140600ZSEP2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121321ZSEP2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.6N 110.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 109.7E, APPROXIMATELY 104 NM 
NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC 
REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED, WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE 
CIRCULATION LIKELY EXTENDING OVER LAND. CURRENT ANALYSIS OF THE 
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER 
CONSOLIDATION WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE AIR COLUMN. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, SKIRTING THE COAST OF VIETNAM, POTENTIALLY 
REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRITERIA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. 
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE BROAD SYSTEM 
CAN ORGANIZE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL IN VIETNAM AND TRANSITS INLAND. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 121330) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 156.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 303 
NM NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEST-TO-
EAST-ORIENTED TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS 
SITUATED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLOGENESIS, CHARACTERIZED BY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30-31 C, 
ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OF 120 KTS, AND RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR CONFINED NORTHWARD OF 
THE DISTURBANCE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 90W WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE DURING THE NEXT 36–48 HOURS 
WHILE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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