WTPN21 PHNC 130100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120100Z SEP 26//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 120100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 114.2W TO 16.9N 116.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 114.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 
114.2W, APPROXIMATELY 250NM SOUTH OF CLARION, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE, WITH 
LARGE SWATHS OF FORMATIVE BANDING PRIMARILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN 
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE 
WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND VERY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE 97E WILL TAKE
A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 120100).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
140100Z.
//
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