ABPW10 PGTW 121900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/121900Z-130600ZSEP2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121321ZSEP2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.0N 109.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 108.5E, APPROXIMATELY 67 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC 
REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED, WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE 
CIRCULATION LIKELY EXTENDING OVER LAND. CURRENT ANALYSIS OF THE 
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER 
CONSOLIDATION WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
AND DEEP MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE AIR COLUMN BEING OFFSET BY LAND 
INTERACTION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
98W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, SKIRTING THE COAST OF VIETNAM, 
POTENTIALLY REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRITERIA DURING THE NEXT 12-
24 HOURS. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE 
BROAD SYSTEM CAN ORGANIZE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL IN VIETNAM AND 
TRANSITS INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 
156.6E, APPROXIMATELY 416 NM NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION 
SITUATED ON A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED TROUGH, WITH CYCLING DEEP 
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY AIR TO THE NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE INVEST 90W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 
36-48 HOURS AND TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE CONVECTION 
AND WINDS BUILD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2)//
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